مساله برنامه ریزی انرژی پایدار مبتنی بر رویکرد تصادفی p-استوار

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مهندسی صنایع، دانشکاه علم و صنعت ایران

2 دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه تهران

10.22084/ier.2019.17808.1809

چکیده

در این مقاله مساله برنامه­ریزی انرژی پایدار با توجه به جنبه­های اجتماعی و زیست محیطی پایداری مدلسازی شده است. توسعه ظرفیت نیروگاه­ها به نحوی مدلسازی شده است که کمترین هزینه منابع آبی برای تولید الکتریسیته نیاز باشد و میزان انتشارگازهای گلخانه­ای تولیدی کنترل شود. از طرف دیگر سطح پذیرش اجتماعی برنامه توسعه ظرفیت نیروگاهی، باید برآوردکننده حداقل سطح پذیرش قابل قبول دولت در هر یک از دوره­های برنامه­ریزی باشد. عدم قطعیت موجود در مساله، با تولید سناریوهایی در قالب رویکرد تصادفی p-استوار پوشش داده شده است، در این رویکرد ضمن حداقل کردن متوسط هزینه­های تمام سناریوها، مقدار تاسف برای هر سناریو از سطح p بیشتر نخواهد شد و استواری جواب ارائه شده در سطح p حفظ می­شود. مدل پیشنهادی برای یک مطالعه موردی از بخش انرژی ایران پیاده­سازی شده است. نتایج نشان می­دهد که با استفاده از رویکرد تصادفی p-استوار می­توان با اندک افزایشی در متوسط هزینه­های برنامه­ریزی انرژی، برای هر یک از سناریوها جوابهایی با اختلاف کم از مقادیر بهنیه آنها به دست آورد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sustainable Energy Planning Based on Stochastic P-Robust

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fariba Fathipour 1
  • Mohammad Saidi-Mehrabad 1
  • Hamed Shakouri Ganjavi 2
1 Industrial engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology
2 Industrial engineering, Tehran University
چکیده [English]

In this paper, a new model for energy planning problem is proposed based on environmental and social aspects of sustainability. Power plants capacity expansion is modeled in a way that the water consumption cost is minimized and the greenhouse gases emission rate is controlled. Moreover, social acceptance for the capacity expansion plan must ensure the government’s social acceptance level, in the planning periods. Different scenarios generated to cover the variety of uncertainties, based on stochastic P-robust approach. In this approach, the expected cost is minimized and the regret value for each scenario would not be more than P, so the solution is P-robust. The proposed model is applied for a case study from Iran energy sector. The results indicate that a slight increase in expected cost value leads to considerable regret reduction.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy Planning
  • Sustainability
  • Stochastic P-Robust Approach
  • Social Acceptance
  • Greenhouse Gases Emission
  • Water
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